What the numbers can tell us
This seminar takes a closer look at popular opinion and opinion polling in Ukraine and Russia. We ask what the numbers can tell us, what remains uncertain, and how polling data should be interpreted under conditions of war and profound social disruption.
In Ukraine, popular opinion appears responsive to both internal and external developments, yet support for the war effort has remained high and largely stable despite the enormous human and material costs of resisting Russia’s aggression. This raises important questions about how Ukrainians understand the war, what they expect from their leaders and international partners, and how methodologically sound polling can be conducted during an existential war, especially when parts of the population live under occupation or have been displaced.
In Russia, opinion polls continue to show high support for both Putin’s regime and the war against Ukraine, although recent polls indicate a slight decline. Yet these numbers are difficult to interpret. Do respondents answer sincerely when criticism of the war and the regime can carry real risks? How should we understand apparent popular support in a society that is shaped by repression, propaganda and limited access to independent information? And as the war becomes longer, larger and more painful for Russian society, will people’s attitudes remain stable?
The two invited speakers will discuss these and other questions about popular opinion in Ukraine and Russia, a factor that may, in the long run, prove decisive for the outcome of the war.
Compulsory registration
You must register for either in-person or digital participation. For digital participation, you will receive a link to the seminar livestream.
